People are generally bad at assessing probabilities. That’s why we have irrational fears and why we overestimate our odds of winning the lottery. Whenever I have to travel by plane, for example, my palms sweat, my heart races and my thoughts take a gloomy turn. I should be much more worried when I get on… Continue reading The Creepy Calculus of Measuring Death Risk
Raising Costs to Nuclear Proliferators
Israeli and U.S. military strikes in June have raised the cost to Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons. Proliferators must now weigh military risks along with political and financial costs. Iran may be a special case; it has invested so much that it may try to restart its nuclear arms effort. Other potential nuclear rogues may… Continue reading Raising Costs to Nuclear Proliferators
What FDA’s Planned Limits on COVID Vaccinations Mean for Health
Larry Saltzman has blood cancer. He’s also a retired doctor, so he knows getting covid-19 could be dangerous for him — his underlying illness puts him at high risk of serious complications and death. To avoid getting sick, he stays away from large gatherings, and he’s comforted knowing healthy people who get boosters protect him… Continue reading What FDA’s Planned Limits on COVID Vaccinations Mean for Health
Honobia Bigfoot Siege
Podcast: Download MYS378: A rural Oklahoma family faced nightly terror—food theft, rock attacks, and prowlers peering in windows. Jimmy Akin and Dom Bettinelli weigh Bigfoot vs. bear, hidden motives, and eerie mimicry. Could this siege change what we believe? Get all new episodes automatically and for free: Follow by Email | Watch this episode and… Continue reading Honobia Bigfoot Siege
Leashing Chinese AI Needs Smart Chip Controls
China’s stunning achievements in AI have one glaring weak spot: access to compute—the raw processing power that fuels AI and relies on large volumes of advanced semiconductors. The United States currently has a tenfold advantage over China in total compute capacity, a gap that may only widen over time. U.S. tech firms are pouring billions… Continue reading Leashing Chinese AI Needs Smart Chip Controls
NOAA Says It’s Ready for Hurricane Season. Weather Experts Are Worried
CLIMATEWIRE | The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration insists it’s ready for the above-average hurricane season that meteorologists expect this summer. But scientists across the country are sounding the alarm about personnel shortages and budget cuts, which they say could strain the agency’s resources and risk burnout among its staff. The tension was on display… Continue reading NOAA Says It’s Ready for Hurricane Season. Weather Experts Are Worried
Writing a Defense Strategy That Sticks
This commentary was originally published by Defense One on August 1, 2025. Defense strategy has become a booming enterprise, yet its core themes often boil down to a single word—or just a few. Donald Rumsfeld’s tenure in the Pentagon was defined by “transformation,” while Lloyd Austin’s strategy (PDF) emphasized “campaigning” and “integrated deterrence.” Robert Gates… Continue reading Writing a Defense Strategy That Sticks
New Method Is the Fastest Way To Find the Best Routes
If you want to solve a tricky problem, it often helps to get organized. You might, for example, break the problem into pieces and tackle the easiest pieces first. But this kind of sorting has a cost. You may end up spending too much time putting the pieces in order. This dilemma is especially relevant… Continue reading New Method Is the Fastest Way To Find the Best Routes
Russia’s Use of Crypto Schemes
To maintain access to international markets in the face of Western economic pressure, Russia is increasingly turning to noncurrency payment schemes. The state has strong incentives to obscure its transactions and reduce reliance on fiat currencies (such as the dollar or euro) to evade sanctions and avoid scrutiny. This month, the head of Rosfinmonitoring, Russia’s… Continue reading Russia’s Use of Crypto Schemes
How Can Math Protect Our Data?
Every time data travels — from smartphones to the cloud, or across the vacuum of space — it relies on a silent but vigilant guardian in the form of error-correcting codes. These codes, baked into nearly every digital system, are designed to detect and repair any errors that noise, interference or cosmic rays might inflict.… Continue reading How Can Math Protect Our Data?