Several months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, it was reported that Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II, caught economists at the London School of Economics off guard with a simple question: “Why did nobody see it coming?” As the world began to grapple with the… Continue reading Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World
Category: Intel
Preventing Civilian Casualties, Drinking During the Pandemic, Vaccination Equity: RAND Weekly Recap
This week, we discuss what the Pentagon can do better to prevent civilian casualties; how secondary school principals were doing one year into the pandemic; examining Americans’ drinking habits in the COVID-19 era; strategies to promote vaccination equity; how a deeply divided American public could affect U.S. deterrence; and a sound sculpture inspired by a… Continue reading Preventing Civilian Casualties, Drinking During the Pandemic, Vaccination Equity: RAND Weekly Recap
Two Choices in Ukraine
Facing existential risk, Ukraine may consider unprecedented steps. Urgent measures might help it protect against a Russian invasion. If the immediate threat were to ebb, Ukraine might use the time gained to prepare for potential future threats. In cautioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a January 27 phone call about a “distinct possibility” of a… Continue reading Two Choices in Ukraine
Should NATO Close Its Doors?
In their current confrontation with Russia, the United States and its allies are defending a dangerously anachronistic principle: that all of Russia’s European neighbors should be free to seek NATO membership and that NATO should be free to incorporate them. Already, since the end of the Cold War the United States has extended security guarantees,… Continue reading Should NATO Close Its Doors?
A United Strategy Could Reap Rewards for the United Kingdom in the High North
At a time of increased tension between NATO and Russia over the Ukraine crisis, the relevance of the High North as an area of geostrategic competition is easy to overlook—but only growing in importance. Sea-ice loss attributed to climate change is opening sea routes and access to potential resources in the Arctic. Big regional players,… Continue reading A United Strategy Could Reap Rewards for the United Kingdom in the High North
Trying to Forestall the Next Civilian Casualty Horror
When the New York Times documented faulty intelligence and flawed procedures that repeatedly led to civilian deaths during the U.S. war against the Islamic State, the revelations highlighted more than a broken process for planning and executing airstrikes. They also suggest that after civilians are injured or killed, the Defense Department isn’t doing enough to… Continue reading Trying to Forestall the Next Civilian Casualty Horror
NBC’s Disinformation on Academic Transparency
Lawmakers in about a dozen states have introduced bills to promote academic transparency. The rationale is simple and compelling: parents deserve to know what their children are being taught in school. In an era when public schools are increasingly incorporating the discriminatory tenets of Critical Race Theory into all aspects of pedagogy, this is true… Continue reading NBC’s Disinformation on Academic Transparency
NATO’s Open-Door Policy, U.S. Health Care Payments, Climate Migrants: RAND Weekly Recap
This week, we discuss the dangers of NATO’s open-ended process of expansion; U.S. strategic competition with Russia; how U.S. health care systems emphasize volume over value; the need for a common definition of “climate migrants;” how the military can prepare for the next pandemic; and the value of postsecondary education. Photo by Pascal Rossignol/Reuters In… Continue reading NATO’s Open-Door Policy, U.S. Health Care Payments, Climate Migrants: RAND Weekly Recap
How to Break the Cycle of Conflict with Russia
To judge from recent developments around Ukraine, the United States’ post–Cold War policy toward Russia’s neighbors might seem like a failure. Moscow has deployed more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, and U.S. efforts to de-escalate the situation have so far come up short. But Europe’s most serious security crisis in decades is not… Continue reading How to Break the Cycle of Conflict with Russia
How China Plays by Different Rules—at Everyone Else’s Expense
Imagine the United States allowing a rival unfettered access not merely to its marketplace, but to its media ecosystem—the fourth pillar of our already fragile democracy. And not just access, but the full-blown ability to own, control, and influence the content. You don’t have to imagine it, because it’s happened—and keeps happening. Chinese companies have… Continue reading How China Plays by Different Rules—at Everyone Else’s Expense