On Wednesday the European Union approved fresh sanctions on Belarus for its role in facilitating the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which started last Thursday. While from the start there have been conflicting reports over the extent to which Belarus actually has forces or military assets on the ground inside Ukraine, it’s clear that Minsk allowed… Continue reading EU Hits Belarus With New Sanctions As Pentagon Says “No Indication” Its Troops In Ukraine
Market Overview for Week of March 21, 2022
It was another eventful week in markets with the Fed dipping their toes into hawkish water for the first time since 2018, Russia and Ukraine still failing to reach a peace deal or compromise, and insane price action in the Chinese stock market. Before we go over what happened this week and what will happen… Continue reading Market Overview for Week of March 21, 2022
Problems in U.S. Schools, Conflict with Russia, Opioid Trafficking: RAND Weekly Recap
This week, we discuss school district leaders’ concerns about mental health and political polarization; how to bring stability to Russia’s backyard; what satellite images reveal about China’s treatment of the Uyghur people; the final report from the Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking; what the U.S. military can do to prevent civilian casualties; and how… Continue reading Problems in U.S. Schools, Conflict with Russia, Opioid Trafficking: RAND Weekly Recap
His Father Loved Him: A Reflection on the Prodigal Son
This Sunday, the son sees the Father – He had no idea that his father loved him. The awful moment came: The Prodigal Son went and told his father that he had decided to leave. The reason that he wanted to leave his father’s household, and his father’s arms, was to fill the hole in… Continue reading His Father Loved Him: A Reflection on the Prodigal Son
Scientists Watch a Memory Form in a Living Brain
Imagine that while you are enjoying your morning bowl of Cheerios, a spider drops from the ceiling and plops into the milk. Years later, you still can’t get near a bowl of cereal without feeling overcome with disgust. Researchers have now directly observed what happens inside a brain learning that kind of emotionally charged response.… Continue reading Scientists Watch a Memory Form in a Living Brain
McElligott: “Equities Are Exhausting, I Hate To Even Write About Them Now”
After yesterday’s epic rollercoaster in rates, where we first a dual VaR shock, first in the front-end of the curve as eurodollar exploded higher sending rate hike expectations plunging, and then moved to the long end with coupon bond yields crashing, especially in Germany, where the 10Y bund saw the biggest one day drop in… Continue reading McElligott: “Equities Are Exhausting, I Hate To Even Write About Them Now”
The Nickel Short Squeeze: What Happened?
The Russia and Ukraine crisis have created countless second and third-order effects in markets that it’s dizzying. Last week, we saw the nickel market come to a complete halt and shut its doors for over a week in response to a violent short squeeze. In short, Russia is the world’s third largest nickel producer and… Continue reading The Nickel Short Squeeze: What Happened?
For Valentine’s Day, a Good Night’s Sleep May Be the Best Gift
With Valentine’s Day approaching, many may be pondering traditional gift-giving strategies. Maybe it’s flowers, chocolates, or jewelry? But consider this: As we continue to endure the challenges of pandemic living, perhaps the greatest gift you could give to your partner (and yourself) is a good night of sleep. As I describe in my book, “Sharing… Continue reading For Valentine’s Day, a Good Night’s Sleep May Be the Best Gift
In New Math Proofs, Artificial Intelligence Plays to Win
Last March, Iowa State University mathematicians Leslie Hogben and Carolyn Reinhart received a welcome surprise. Adam Wagner, a postdoctoral fellow at Tel Aviv University, emailed to let them know he’d answered a question they’d published the week before — though not by any of the usual math or brute-force computing techniques. Instead, he used a… Continue reading In New Math Proofs, Artificial Intelligence Plays to Win
Powell Kills March 50bps Rate Hike, But Leaves Door Open For Later In 2022
Rest in Peace 50bps March rate hike. Moments ago, Fed Chair Powell said that he is “inclined to support a 25 basis point rate hike” in March, which immediately killed any market expectation of a 1+ rate hike in two weeks. However, in the very next sentence, Powell said that if inflation stays hot, he… Continue reading Powell Kills March 50bps Rate Hike, But Leaves Door Open For Later In 2022