Category: Intel

After much hemming and hawing, Congress in December finally passed a $768 billion defense authorization bill, some $25 billion over what the Biden administration had requested. For defense hawks, this is good news. With China becoming increasingly belligerent towards Taiwan, Russia poised to invade Ukraine, and Iran stiff-arming nuclear negotiations, the United States faces intensifying… Continue reading American Deterrence’s Missing Half

A Japanese politician who played an important part in the history of U.S.-Japan relations died recently, and chances are you’ve never heard of him. Kaifu Toshiki was Japan’s prime minister from 1989 to 1991, a critical time in U.S.-Japan relations as the world was transitioning from the Cold War to the fog that lay beyond.… Continue reading The Premier Who Helped Change U.S.-Japan Relations

As the United States gets its arms around the challenge of a long-term rivalry with China, several powerful but dubious claims are putting down roots in the collective thinking of the U.S. national security community. Some are well on the way to becoming unquestioned articles of faith, and like similar pieces of conventional wisdom that… Continue reading Shaping China’s Ambitions

Mobilizing for great power conflict is hard enough, but with a new variant of COVID-19 running rampant, the U.S. military would have its hands full if it had to fight tonight. Fortunately, today the U.S. military is fairly well-postured to tackle a deployment during a pandemic, given its experience fighting COVID-19 over the past few… Continue reading The Future and Past of War and Disease

Thousands of families were forced from their homes due to the recent Colorado wildfires. They add to the growing number of people—21.5 million since 2010—displaced by extreme weather. In the coming decades this trend will almost certainly accelerate, as some 200 million—possibly as many as 1 billion people—are displaced by the middle of the century.… Continue reading To Help Climate Migrants, We Must First Recognize Them

Several months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, it was reported that Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II, caught economists at the London School of Economics off guard with a simple question: “Why did nobody see it coming?” As the world began to grapple with the… Continue reading Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World

This week, we discuss what the Pentagon can do better to prevent civilian casualties; how secondary school principals were doing one year into the pandemic; examining Americans’ drinking habits in the COVID-19 era; strategies to promote vaccination equity; how a deeply divided American public could affect U.S. deterrence; and a sound sculpture inspired by a… Continue reading Preventing Civilian Casualties, Drinking During the Pandemic, Vaccination Equity: RAND Weekly Recap

Facing existential risk, Ukraine may consider unprecedented steps. Urgent measures might help it protect against a Russian invasion. If the immediate threat were to ebb, Ukraine might use the time gained to prepare for potential future threats. In cautioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a January 27 phone call about a “distinct possibility” of a… Continue reading Two Choices in Ukraine

In their current confrontation with Russia, the United States and its allies are defending a dangerously anachronistic principle: that all of Russia’s European neighbors should be free to seek NATO membership and that NATO should be free to incorporate them. Already, since the end of the Cold War the United States has extended security guarantees,… Continue reading Should NATO Close Its Doors?

At a time of increased tension between NATO and Russia over the Ukraine crisis, the relevance of the High North as an area of geostrategic competition is easy to overlook—but only growing in importance. Sea-ice loss attributed to climate change is opening sea routes and access to potential resources in the Arctic. Big regional players,… Continue reading A United Strategy Could Reap Rewards for the United Kingdom in the High North